Several governments have adopted the policy of stopping the production of thermal vehicles by 2035. Can the transition to electric vehicles decarbonize the automobile sector? Researchers have looked into this question for Japan.
The emission of greenhouse gases causes global warming of the planet. Electric vehicles are often presented as a solution to global warming, but is this really the case? A team from the University of Kyushu (Japan) looked into the issue and is quite nuanced about the effectiveness of the transition to all-electric technology. Its results were published in the Journal of Cleaner Production on January 15, 2024.
An international observation
In 2021, greenhouse gas emissions were 36.6 Gt (billion tonnes) of CO2 equivalent, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In these emissions, the transport sector accounted for 7.7 Gt, in comparison the electricity production and heating sector accounted for 15.8 Gt in the world.
To seek to reduce the production of these gases harmful to the environment, the IEA suggested stopping the production of thermal vehicles by 2035. This measure was taken by Japan (the heart of the study) but also by the European Union.
The impact on CO2 emissions
The authors based their study on a set of results published between 2018 and 2021 which showed a reduction in emissions during use. The results of these reference studies are, however, very sensitive to the energy mix studied.
The researchers therefore focused on Japan’s energy mix, that is to say the distribution of the different sources of electricity used by the country. In the case of Japan, 70% of electricity is produced from fossil sources. The Japanese government is trying to reduce this share of fossil energy to 50% by 2030.
Consider the full life of the vehicle
Researchers highlight a blind spot in discussions about electrification of the transportation sector. The complete cycle of the vehicle is not considered for comparison with thermal vehicles.
In their study, the researchers argue that the production of an electric vehicle would produce 1.5 to 2 times more CO2 than that of a thermal vehicle.
Necessary developments
This study shows that switching from thermal to electric for the transport sector will only have an impact if we question the entire system, from production to the use of these vehicles.
Shigemi Kagawa, co-author of the study, concludes in a press release: “We can make efforts to use our cars less and keep them longer. But the government must provide attractive subsidies and manufacturers must work to encourage repairing vehicles and making replacement parts available.